How to Buy a Car, Using Game Theory http://t.co/IYklMVDfBQ
— The ModularWorld* (@TheModularWorld) December 22, 2013
People First... People Matter... The Human Element Matters... Behavioral Finance... Homo Economicus is a Myth...
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Play Your Game - How to Buy a Car Using Game Theory..
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Life is not Linear.....
You must Build a Plan That can Evolve...managing deliberate and emerging strategies...
The Purpose of Life is to Grow(Evolve)...Let your plan Evolve
Look for opportunities as they present themselves... When opportunities arise ...will you see them...will you be ready...if this then this - if that then that...A flexible strategy...In matters of principle vs ???Jefferson..
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
MAIN or WALL - How about BOTH?
Choosing An Advisor: Wall Street Vs. Main Street http://t.co/WrxTlveckz via @investopedia
— MAIN & WALL (@MainandWall) December 17, 2013
Saturday, December 14, 2013
The FluxVilleTimes
The Death of the Corporate Bully | CEB Blogs http://t.co/pmpD2lJS4F
— The ModularWorld* (@TheModularWorld) December 15, 2013
What's Wrong with My Investment Strategy?
Everyone Is Wrong http://t.co/k560t3DKH0 via @sharethis
— The ModularWorld* (@TheModularWorld) December 14, 2013
Friday, December 13, 2013
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Retirement Focus
Congressional Committee Addresses ‘Retirement Crisis’ http://t.co/tLIwoDXNQC
— The ModularWorld* (@TheModularWorld) December 5, 2013
Monday, December 2, 2013
Modular-Finance in Motion....
Bill Barnett on Strategy: Discovery trumps planning, so plan to discover http://t.co/VX3biZJh9h
— MAIN & WALL (@MainandWall) December 2, 2013
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Setting the Big Picture - Yours
Perception is Contextual -
Friday, November 29, 2013
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Saving Our Cities
Taking one for the team in today's #SavingOurCities report, at a Baltimore wastewater plant @PowerLunch pic.twitter.com/8T62fsRglT
— Scott Cohn (@ScottCohnCNBC) November 21, 2013
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Retirement Planning
Rewiring 401(k) Connections http://t.co/K1F5TfAII5 via @sharethis
— MAIN & WALL (@MainandWall) November 20, 2013
Monday, November 18, 2013
Modular_Finance - The Future is Here Now!
Firms Will Embrace Financial Planning, But Not Soon http://t.co/sFPsWlnEVu
— MAIN & WALL (@MainandWall) November 18, 2013
Saving America's Cities
A stockbroker-turned-pastor has a unique take on Oakland's financial woes. NEXT on @PowerLunch #SavingOurCities http://t.co/P0DuGF3Ia5
— Scott Cohn (@ScottCohnCNBC) November 18, 2013
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
ModularFinance is An American Construct.....
Form of Government - Separation of Powers - Church and State - Business Culture ....ATBPO
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Living in a A MultiSpeed World
"Financial Planning has always lagged ideas applied in academia and institutions by ten to 20 years". However, today the private investor has access to the same information as institutional investors. A MultiVerse Platform and Modular Strategy allows us to bring new ideas and advancing knowledge to the front end faster, close the Gap and stay a step ahead of the competition.........
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Learning from the Past ~ mfim ~ ModularFinance ~ in ~ motion
BROKEN PLANS
~Hat tip - Andrew Gluck, Financial Advisor Magazine
September 2, 2010
The financial crisis has laid bare some of the folly of long-term financial planning. The notion that you can use past data on assets to create forward-looking plans that stretch out ten, 20 or 30 years is naive.
When advisors make predictions about the return on stocks, for instance, they are often looking back at data on returns, standard deviations and correlation coefficients going back to 1926. The conventional wisdom holds that the farther back in years the data goes, the better. But what the 2008 crisis taught us is that this method of considering possible bad outcomes is deficient.
Monte Carlo simulation in financial planning programs, for instance, uses historical returns of asset classes and their standard deviations to project possible future outcomes. In most planning apps, a lognormal or fat-tail distribution is used to better reflect the unlikely chance of a really big gain or loss in any given year. But it turns out that Monte Carlo simulations randomize returns and risk data too much to model the real world accurately. The math doesn't work. It fails to see that some economic conditions linger-that portfolios can perform very poorly or very well several years in a row.
Actual economic scenarios, in other words, instead of randomness, should thus become the basis of investment projections. Real-world historical data should form the building blocks of simulations.
This is not a new concept. And yet scenario planning has not caught on among advisors. The financial crisis, though, may have shown we must have it in our financial planning applications.
~Hat tip - Andrew Gluck, Financial Advisor Magazine
September 2, 2010
The financial crisis has laid bare some of the folly of long-term financial planning. The notion that you can use past data on assets to create forward-looking plans that stretch out ten, 20 or 30 years is naive.
When advisors make predictions about the return on stocks, for instance, they are often looking back at data on returns, standard deviations and correlation coefficients going back to 1926. The conventional wisdom holds that the farther back in years the data goes, the better. But what the 2008 crisis taught us is that this method of considering possible bad outcomes is deficient.
Monte Carlo simulation in financial planning programs, for instance, uses historical returns of asset classes and their standard deviations to project possible future outcomes. In most planning apps, a lognormal or fat-tail distribution is used to better reflect the unlikely chance of a really big gain or loss in any given year. But it turns out that Monte Carlo simulations randomize returns and risk data too much to model the real world accurately. The math doesn't work. It fails to see that some economic conditions linger-that portfolios can perform very poorly or very well several years in a row.
Actual economic scenarios, in other words, instead of randomness, should thus become the basis of investment projections. Real-world historical data should form the building blocks of simulations.
This is not a new concept. And yet scenario planning has not caught on among advisors. The financial crisis, though, may have shown we must have it in our financial planning applications.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Henry Singleton on Strategic Planning - Stay Flexible...
Balancing Deliberate and Emergent Strategies....
Friday, January 25, 2013
PLAY YOUR GAME -
WORK HARD, BE SMART, PLAY YOUR GAME...PLAY TO WIN.....
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Modular vs Modern
A multiverse concept.....stationary vs poker
Navigating Turbulence....
is how you get to the next level in TMW...structured products lack the ability to adapt ( manage turbulence) I
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
MAIN STREET - WHAT IS YOUR iT - Clearly Defined Goals
Frame The Game....Play your Game ....Not the Other Guys....
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